Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling:

Calibration and Reliability
in Groundwater Modelling:
From Uncertainty
to Decision Making

Edited by M. F.P. Bierkens, J.C. Gehrels & K. Kovar

IAHS Publication 304 (published May 2006) ISBN 1-901-502-58-9; 316 + xii pp; price £59.00

Financial sponsorship for this publication was provided by the International Hydrological Programme of UNESCO

The ModelCARE conference series provides an international forum for state-of-the-art presentations on methodologies and techniques of calibration and uncertainty assessment in groundwater modelling and needs for future development; this volume contains papers selected for publication from ModelCARE 2005, the fifth in the series.

Groundwater systems are perhaps the most difficult Earth systems to model because they are inaccessible yet, as they are often important drinking water sources, very detailed knowledge is required. Great advances have been made in assessment of uncertainty of model outputs and how to decrease this uncertainty. However, the last step of the triplet uncertainty assessment, uncertainty reduction, uncertainty management has not yet been properly made. In practice, policy makers still find it hard to cope with model predictions that have been enriched with measures of quantified uncertainty. Several of the papers here deal with decision making under uncertainty.

The science of determining stochastic well head protection zones attracted many papers for the conference; considerable progress has been made since the previous one in 2002, and 10 papers are included here. Another noticeable advance that became evident during ModelCARE 2005 is the combined modelling and upscaling of spatially heterogeneous hydraulic and geochemical parameters. Further advances in the calibration of groundwater modelling were evident from the use of model reduction techniques in order to calibrate models with millions of grid nodes and the use of remote sensing data. The contents of this book are listed below; abstracts of the 45 papers published can be seen at the IAHS website.

Preface M. F. P. Bierkens, J. C. Gehrels & K. Kovar		v
1	Use of Geophysical and Geochemical Measurements, Remote Sensing, Monitoring and a priori Hydrological Knowledge
Reducing uncertainty of hydrogeological parameters by co-conditional stochastic simulation: lessons from practical applications in aquifers and in low permeability layers A. Dassargues, C. Rentier & M. Huysmans		3
A simple procedure for the identification of aquifer parameters based on steady-state pumping tests Giovanni Firmani, Aldo Fiori & Alberto Bellin		10
Reducing ambiguity in fractured-porous media characterization using single-well tracer tests I. Ghergut, C. McDermott, M. Sauter, M. Herfort & O. Kolditz		17
A tomographic approach to identify hydraulic conductivity of a phreatic aquifer by the "differential system method" Mauro Giudici, Giovanni Angelo Meles, Giansilvio Ponzini, Chiara Vassena & Guido Parravicini		25
Inclusion of remote sensing information to improve groundwater flow modelling in the Chobe region (Botswana) H. J. W. M. Hendricks Franssen, P. Brunner, L. Kgothlang & W. Kinzelbach		31
Simulating environmental tracer transport in unsaturated-saturated porous media G. A. Onnis, R. Althaus, S. Klump, H. J. W. M. Hendricks Franssen, F. Stauffer & W. Kinzelbach		38
Identification of chemical reactions and their reaction rate coefficients with push-pull tests A. Vandenbohede & L. Lebbe		46
Towards an upscaled model of aquifer recharge through glacial drift deposits, Shropshire, UK R. Mackay, M. O. Cuthbert, H. Ash & J. H. Tellam		52
Identification of hydrogeological models: application to tracer test analysis in a karst aquifer Carolina Massmann, Steffen Birk, Rudolf Liedl & Tobias Geyer		59
2	Calibration and Parameter Uncertainty
Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling R. S. Blasone, H. Madsen & D. Rosbjerg		67
Evaluation of the inverse modelling process for heterogeneous porous media through laboratory air injection tests Kiyoshi Masumoto		73
Parameter estimation for a double continuum transport model for fractured porous media M. Beyer & U. Mohrlok		80
Calibration of hydraulic and tracer tests in fractured media represented by a DFN model Leonardo David Donado, Xavier Sánchez-Vila, Eduardo Ruiz, Francisco Javier Elorza, Carmen Bajos & Antonio Vela-Guzman		87
On the use of Pareto optimization for multi-criteria calibration of hydrological models Henrik Madsen & Soon-Thiam Khu		93
Influence of modelling concepts and approaches on the results of field scale reactive transport modelling Sascha E. Oswald, Ian A. Watson, Roger S. Crouch & Steven A. Banwart		100
Using Bayesian inverse modelling in real-world projects: opportunities and challenges J. R. Valstar, B. Minnema, J. J. J. C. Snepvangers & C. B. M. te Stroet		108
Inverse modelling of groundwater flow using model reduction P. T. M. Vermeulen & A. W. Heemink		113
3	Combined Flow and Transport: Heterogeneity, Parameters, Processes
Assessing contaminant mass flow rates obtained by the integral groundwater investigation method by using the Virtual Aquifer approach S. Bauer & O. Kolditz		123
Upscaling retardation factors in 2-D porous media J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández, Jianlin Fu & Daniel Fernàndez-Garcia		130
Stochastic analysis of the effect of spatial variability of diffusion parameters on radionuclide transport in a low permeability clay layer Marijke Huysmans & Alain Dassargues		137
Uncertainties in modelling and parameterization of fluid–rock consumption–production interaction in porous media W. Kessels & S. Wessling		143
Reactive transport codes applied to gypsum dissolution in a laboratory column experiment focusing on the sensitivity of model concepts and data uncertainty Wilfried Pfingsten, Jens Mibus & Roland Kuechler		151
Block-upscaling of transport in heterogeneous aquifers M. Willmann, X. Sánchez-Vila, J. Carrera & A. Guadagnini		158
4	Reliability of Model Results/Stochastic Forward Modelling
Upscaling of solute transport in mildly heterogeneous media: comparison of Fickian and non-Fickian approaches Christophe C. Frippiat & Alain E. Holeyman		167
On the departure from Gaussianity and Fickianity of transport in highly heterogeneous aquifers I. Janković, A. Fiori & G. Dagan		174
Palaeo-evolution and uncertainty analysis of regional groundwater flow in discretely fractured crystalline rock S. D. Normani, J. F. Sykes, E. A. Sudicky & Y. J. Park		180
5	Modelling of Well Capture Zones
State-space first-order estimate of well catchment uncertainty M. I. Bakr, A. P. Butler, A. Guadagnini & M. Riva		189
Integral pumping tests: average concentration and mass flow at the capture zone scale Martí Bayer-Raich & Jerker Jarsjö		196
Comparison of stochastic and regression based methods for quantification of predictive uncertainty of model-simulated wellhead protection zones in heterogeneous aquifers Steen Christensen, Catherine Moore & John Doherty		202
Upscaling transmissivity in the near-well region Jianlin Fu, J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández & Carl L. Axness		209
Modelling of regional-scale well-flow in heterogeneous aquifers: 2-D or not 2-D? The late P. Indelman & G. Dagan		215
A synthetic study of the worth of transmissivity and head data to delineate groundwater protection zones in braided alluvial aquifers J. Kerrou, P. Renard, I. Lunati & H. J. W. M. Hendricks Franssen		220
A composite medium approach for probabilistic modelling of contaminant travel time distribution to a pumping well in a heterogeneous aquifer M. Riva, L. Guadagnini, A. Guadagnini, E. Martac & T. Ptak		227
Recharge fronts and stagnation areas for pumping wells M. Riva & A. Guadagnini		234
Uncertainty estimation of well catchments: combined effect of inhomogeneous transmissivity and uncertain mean recharge Fritz Stauffer & Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen		240
Delineation of capture zones in transient groundwater flow systems Velimir V. Vesselinov & Bruce A. Robinson		246
6	Developments in Modelling
A random-walk approach for simulating wastewater transport and transformations in the unsaturated zone Cristina Cata & Ulf Mohrlok		255
Simulation of groundwater–seawater interactions in the Aral Sea basin by a coupled water balance model Jerker Jarsjö, Irina Alekseeva, Corinna Schrum & Georgia Destouni		261
Diffuse loading of surface water from groundwater in areas with shallow groundwater tables: quasi-2-D vs 2-D simulation Elisabeth Peters & Jasper Griffioen		268
Modelling thermohaline variable-density flow and solute transport in fractured porous media T. Graf & R. Therrien		275
Complex groundwater whirl systems Kick Hemker & Mark Bakker		281
A numerical assessment of the random walk particle tracking method for heterogeneous aquifers P. Salamon, D. Fernàndez-Garcia & J.J. Gómez-Hernández		288
7	Decision Making under Uncertainty
Los Alamos National Laboratory’s risk-based decision analysis for groundwater remediation and monitoring Paul A. Davis, Diana Hollis, Kay H. Birdsell, Velimir V. Vesselinov, Daniel E. Rives & Sergey Pozdniakov		297
An analysis of different strategies for the prioritization of groundwater quality prediction studies with a sequential numerical game Kees Vink & Paul Schot		303
Risk analysis on groundwater contamination at the megasite Port of Rotterdam Annemieke Marsman, Johan Valstar & Jeroen ter Meer		309

Contents