PUBLICATIONS

The ModelCARE conference series provides an international forum for state-of-the-art presentations on methodologies and techniques of calibration and uncertainty assessment in groundwater modelling and needs for future development; this volume contains papers selected for publication from ModelCARE 2005, the fifth in the series. Groundwater systems are perhaps the most difficult Earth systems to model because they are inaccessible yet, as they are often important drinking water sources, very detailed knowledge is required. Great advances have been made in assessment of uncertainty of model outputs and how to decrease this uncertainty. However, the last step of the triplet uncertainty assessment, uncertainty reduction, uncertainty management has not yet been properly made. In practice, policy makers still find it hard to cope with model predictions that have been enriched with measures of quantified uncertainty. Several of the papers here deal with decision making under uncertainty. The science of determining stochastic well head protection zones attracted many papers for the conference; considerable progress has been made since the previous one in 2002, and 10 papers are included here. Another noticeable advance that became evident during ModelCARE 2005 is the combined modelling and upscaling of spatially heterogeneous hydraulic and geochemical parameters. Further advances in the calibration of groundwater modelling were evident from the use of model reduction techniques in order to calibrate models with millions of grid nodes and the use of remote sensing data

Contents for Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: From Uncertainty to Decision Making

Title	Pages	File
Preface of Volume 304 - M. F. P. Bierkens et al. M. F. P. Bierkens, J. C. Gehrels & K. Kovar	v-viii
Reducing uncertainty of hydrogeological parameters by co-conditional stochastic simulation: lessons from practical applications in aquifers and in low permeability layers - A. Dassargues et al. A. Dassargues, C. Rentier & M. Huysmans	3-9
A simple procedure for the identification of aquifer parameters based on steady-state pumping tests - Giovanni Firmani et al. Giovanni Firmani, Aldo Fiori & Alberto Bellin	10-16
Reducing ambiguity in fractured-porous media characterization using single-well tracer tests - I. Ghergut et al. I. Ghergut, C. McDermott, M. Sauter, M. Herfort & O. Kolditz	17-24
A tomographic approach to identify hydraulic conductivity of a phreatic aquifer by the differential system method - Mauro Giudici et al. Mauro Giudici, Giovanni Angelo Meles, Giansilvio Ponzini, Chiara Vassena & Guido Parra	25-30
Inclusion of remote sensing information to improve groundwater flow modelling in the Chobe region (Botswana) - H. J. W. M. Hendricks Franssen et al. H. J. W. M. Hendricks Franssen, P. Brunner, L. Kgothlang & W. Kinzelbach	31-37
Simulating environmental tracer transport in unsaturated-saturated porous media - G. A. Onnis et al. G. A. Onnis, R. Althaus, S. Klump, H. J. W. M. Hendricks Franssen, F. Stauffer & W. Ki	38-45
Identification of chemical reactions and their reaction rate coefficients with push-pull tests - A. Vandenbohede & L. Lebbe A. Vandenbohede & L. Lebbe	46-51
Towards an upscaled model of aquifer recharge through glacial drift deposits, Shropshire, UK - R. Mackay et al. R. Mackay, M. O. Cuthbert, H. Ash & J. H. Tellam	52-58
Identification of hydrogeological models: application to tracer test analysis in a karst aquifer - Carolina Massmann et al. Carolina Massmann, Steffen Birk, Rudolf Liedl & Tobias Geyer	59-64
Comparison of parameter estimation algorithms in hydrological modelling - R. S. Blasone et al. R. S. Blasone, H. Madsen & D. Rosbjerg	67-72
Evaluation of the inverse modelling process for heterogeneous porous media through laboratory air injection tests - Kiyoshi Masumoto Kiyoshi Masumoto	73-79
Parameter estimation for a double continuum transport model for fractured porous media - M. Beyer & U. Mohrlok M. Beyer & U. Mohrlok	80-86
Calibration of hydraulic and tracer tests in fractured media represented by a DFN model - Leonardo David Donado et al. Leonardo David Donado, Xavier Sanchez-Vila, Eduardo Ruiz, Francisco Javier Elorza, Carmen	87-92
On the use of Pareto optimization for multi-criteria calibration of hydrological models - Henrik Madsen & Soon-Thiam Khu Henrik Madsen & Soon-Thiam Khu	93-99
Influence of modelling concepts and approaches on the results of field scale reactive transport modelling - Sascha E. Oswald et al. Sascha E. Oswald, Ian A. Watson, Roger S. Crouch & Steven A. Banwart	100-107
Using Bayesian inverse modelling in real-world projects: opportunities and challenges - J. R. Valstar et al. J. R. Valstar, B. Minnema, J. J. J. C. Snepvangers & C. B. M. te Stroet	108-112
Inverse modelling of groundwater flow using model reduction - P. T. M. Vermeulen & A. W. Heemink P. T. M. Vermeulen & A. W. Heemink	113-120
Assessing contaminant mass flow rates obtained by the integral groundwater investigation method by using the Virtual Aquifer approach - S. Bauer & O. Kolditz S. Bauer & O. Kolditz	123-129
Upscaling retardation factors in 2-D porous media - J. Jaime Gomez-Hernandez et al. J. Jaime Gomez-Hernandez, Jianlin Fu & Daniel Fernandez-Garcia	130-136
Stochastic analysis of the effect of spatial variability of diffusion parameters on radionuclide transport in a low permeability clay layer - Marijke Huysmans & Alain Dassargues Marijke Huysmans & Alain Dassargues	137-142
Uncertainties in modelling and parameterization of fluid-rock consumption-production interaction in porous media - W. Kessels & S. Wessling W. Kessels & S. Wessling	143-150
Reactive transport codes applied to gypsum dissolution in a laboratory column experiment focusing on the sensitivity of model concepts and data uncertainty - Wilfried Pfingsten et al. Wilfried Pfingsten, Jens Mibus & Roland Kuechler	151-157
Block-upscaling of transport in heterogeneous aquifers - M. Willmann et al. M. Willmann, X. Sanchez-Vila, J. Carrera & A. Guadagnini	158-164
Upscaling of solute transport in mildly heterogeneous media: comparison of Fickian and non-Fickian approaches - Christophe C. Frippiat & Alain E. Holeyman Christophe C. Frippiat & Alain E. Holeyman	167-173
On the departure from Gaussianity and Fickianity of transport in highly heterogeneous aquifers - I. Jankovic et al. I. Jankovic, A. Fiori & G. Dagan	174-179
Paleo-evolution and uncertainty analysis of regional groundwater flow in discretely fractured crystalline rock - S. D. Normani et al. S. D. Normani, J. F. Sykes, E. A. Sudicky & Y. J. Park	180-186
State-space first-order estimate of well catchment uncertainty - M. I. Bakr et al. M. I. Bakr, A. P. Butler, A. Guadagnini & M. Riva	189-195
Integral pumping tests: average concentration and mass flow at the capture zone scale - Marti Bayer-Raich & Jerker Jarsjo Marti Bayer-Raich & Jerker Jarsjo	196-201
Comparison of stochastic and regression based methods for quantification of predictive uncertainty of model-simulated wellhead protection zones in heterogeneous aquifers - Steen Christensen et al. Steen Christensen, Catherine Moore & John Doherty	202-208
Upscaling transmissivity in the near-well region - Jianlin Fu et al. Jianlin Fu, J. Jaime Gomez-Hernandez & Carl L. Axness	209-214
Modelling of regional-scale well-flow in heterogeneous aquifers: 2-D or not 2-D? - P. Indelman & G. Dagan The late P. Indelman & G. Dagan	215-219
A synthetic study of the worth of transmissivity and head data to delineate groundwater protection zones in braided alluvial aquifers - J. Kerrou et al. J. Kerrou, P. Renard, I. Lunati & H. J. W. M. Hendricks Franssen	220-226
A composite medium approach for probabilistic modelling of contaminant travel time distribution to a pumping well in a heterogeneous aquifer - M. Riva et al. M. Riva, L. Guadagnini, A. Guadagnini, E. Martac & T. Ptak	227-233
Recharge fronts and stagnation areas for pumping wells - M. Riva & A. Guadagnini M. Riva & A. Guadagnini	234-239
Uncertainty estimation of well catchments: combined effect of inhomogeneous transmissivity and uncertain mean recharge - Fritz Stauffer & Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen Fritz Stauffer & Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen	240-245
Delineation of capture zones in transient groundwater flow systems - Velimir V. Vesselinov & Bruce A. Robinson Velimir V. Vesselinov & Bruce A. Robinson	246-252
A random-walk approach for simulating wastewater transport and transformations in the unsaturated zone - Cristina Cata & Ulf Mohrlok Cristina Cata & Ulf Mohrlok	255-260
Simulation of groundwater-seawater interactions in the Aral Sea basin by a coupled water balance model - Jerker Jarsjo et al. Jerker Jarsjo, Irina Alekseeva, Corinna Schrum & Georgia Destouni	261-267
Diffuse loading of surface water from groundwater in areas with shallow groundwater tables - Elisabeth Peters & Jasper Griffioen Elisabeth Peters & Jasper Griffioen	268-274
Modelling thermohaline variable-density flow and solute transport in fractured porous media - T. Graf & R. Therrien T. Graf & R. Therrien	275-280
Complex groundwater whirl systems ; anisotropy; analytical model; groundwater whirls - Kick Hemker & Mark Bakker Kick Hemker & Mark Bakker	281-287
A numerical assessment of the random walk particle tracking method for heterogeneous aquifers - P. Salamon et al. P. Salamon, D. Fernandez-Garcia & J.J. Gomez-Hernandez	288-293
Los Alamos National Laboratory's risk-based decision analysis for groundwater remediation and monitoring - Paul A. Davis et al. Paul A. Davis, Diana Hollis, Kay H. Birdsell, Velimir V. Vesselinov, Daniel E. Rives &	297-302
An analysis of different strategies for the prioritization of groundwater quality prediction studies with a sequential numerical game - Kees Vink & Paul Schot Kees Vink & Paul Schot	303-308
Risk analysis on groundwater contamination at the megasite Port of Rotterdam - Annemieke Marsman et al. Annemieke Marsman, Johan Valstar & Jeroen ter Meer	309-314