PUB SYMPOSIUM 2012
Theme 3: Uncertainty analysis and model diagnostics - Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Convener: Hoshin Gupta ([email protected])
Co-Conveners: Thorsten Wagener, Saket Pande, Jim Freer ([email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected])
During the past decade (since the challenge was posed at the 1999 IAHS meeting in Birmingham), considerable progress has been made in characterizing uncertainties in hydrological model simulations. New methods now try to disentangle the different uncertainty sources (data, parameters, and model structure) in gauged and ungauged basins. And while these methods span a range of approaches, there may be scope to further exploit rich mathematical theories on uncertainty assessment. Concurrently, progress has been made on methods for transferring, extrapolating and regionalising models across basins - a necessary requirement for Predictions in Ungauged Basins, where model calibration is not feasible. While our ability to make such predictions has improved, few approaches produce estimates of predictive uncertainty at ungauged locations. Also, methods for discriminating between alternative model hypotheses remain weak (it has become common to talk about multiple 'equally good' models and parameter sets), and continue to rely heavily on the comparison to observed streamflow for model evaluation. Therefore, attention has turned to the problem of how to characterize, detect, and diagnose model structural inadequacies, and to use this knowledge to develop better models.
In this session, we will report on, and discuss, the past decade of scientific achievements in uncertainty analysis and diagnostic model evaluation in the context of PUB, the insights gained, and the major challenges still facing us. We invite contributions from all scientists that have worked in this area and anticipate a vigorous and productive discussion.
Oral Programme (15 minute talks)
Poster Programme