Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) - IAHS Decade 2003–2012
The first IAHS Scientific Decade 2003–2012, entitled Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) was an IAHS initiative operating throughout the decade of 2003-2012, established with the primary aim of reducing uncertainty in hydrological predictions. It was a 'grass-roots' movement intended to engage the interest of hydrologists around the world, and has grown to encompass an enormous variety of approaches and settings.
PUB encouraged a paradigm shift in the methods used to predict streamflow, sediment and water-quality variables, away from traditional methods reliant on statistical analysis and calibrated models, and towards new techniques based primarily on improved understandings and representations of physical processes within and around the hydrological cycle.
Specific areas of interest included flood estimation, climate variability and drought, erosion and sedimentation, snow- and ice-melt, nutrient fluxes and eutrophication issues, land-use and salinity.
The PUB decade came to an end in 2012 and on the occasion a symposium was held. PUB was deemed a successful decade in terms of scientific outcomes and societal impact. It also served as role model for the next decade on Panta Rhei, Change in Hydrology and Society. PUB has been agenda setting beyond the IAHS community.
The two most high impact outcomes of the PUB decade are a review paper and a synthesis book, both published in 2013.
The review paper is entitled “A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) - a review”, published in Hydrological Sciences Journal and authored by Hrachowitz et al.. It concludes that the PUB initiative was highly productive, as reflected in the literature review and the number of scientific publications that have cited PUB-related work. At the core of the scientific progress were seven achievements.
The synthesis book is entitled “Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins - Synthesis across Processes, Places and Scales”, published by Cambridge University Press and authored by Blöschl et al.. It concludes that "Enhanced communication between disciplines, and people in different places, is the only way that hydrology as an earth science and as an applied science can benefit from its practice globally. For this, hydrology must become one truly global science, and comparative hydrology and the synthesis of the Newtonian and Darwinian worldviews will be the vehicles that will help achieve this." It also offers six best practice recommendations for predicting runoff in ungauged basins. Subsequently the book has been used in a series of annual summer schools on PUB.
The original blog and news remains on the original IAHS PUB-Hub website.
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